Matthew Halaba
Strategic report

Strategic report · monthly

Strategic report

I have started a monthly report on how the war and hybrid pressure affect Poland.

It is an open-source (OSINT) review built on ISW assessments, government statements, operator data and media that name their sources. Each issue covers the past month — the front, the border zone, sabotage, the Baltic and Belarus, gas, fuel, ports and food — and what to watch next.

A new issue every month, published here as a free PDF. The reports are written in Polish.

Issues

  1. Issue 1 · October 2026 · published

    Polska wobec wojny i presji hybrydowej

    Poland, the war and hybrid pressure — review of 19 September to 18 October 2026

    I do not expect a military strike on Poland in the coming month. I expect drones falling a few hundred metres from the border, more closures of Rzeszów and Lublin airports, sabotage commissioned via Telegram and pressure on aid logistics to Ukraine. Gas storage is full, but the buffer is shorter than the percentages suggest, and fuel prices fell because of a government decision that expires on 31 December.

    Download the report (PDF, Polish) 16 pages · 179 KB